Keeping up with the upcoming COP28: TRENDS Study analyzes Climate Change and explores how Military Establishments should Reconsider Conflict Projection

In line with the support for the 28th session of the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC (COP28), TRENDS Research and Advisory issued a new study entitled: "Climate Change and the Armies’ Early Preparedness for Conflict Re-Projection". The Study addressed many questions, including the legal frameworks governing the actions of armies in the environment in which they operate on their own territory of jurisdiction. Moreover, the paper considered the impact of military spending on climate change, the tools for preparing armies to address climate change and the potential places of conflict, which may arise due to climate change and global warming.

The study was prepared by Mohammed Al-Dhahuri, Head of the Department of Strategic Studies, and Dr. Yousry Ahmed Al-Azbawi, an expert in political affairs at TRENDS Research and Advisory. The study monitored and analyzed several points, namely environmental protection during armed conflicts. It covered the legal approach, the impact of military spending on climate change, the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war on climate change and considered the extent to which armies really mind the environment during military operations and the U.S. military preparedness tools for climate change. Finally, the study reviewed the impact of climate change on the type and locations of emerging conflicts between militaries.

The study indicated that climate change has also affected security and defense fields and the ability of armies to perform their assigned tasks. Abrupt phenomena resulting from climatic change, such as floods, storms, wild fires and droughts, have affected the structure of military installations, the design of their combat equipment and operations.

The study explained that environmental strategies and legislation focus on civilian activities to reduce their carbon emissions footprint and neglect the environmental consequences of military activities that may pose a grave threat to human life and biodiversity in some areas.

The study stressed that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the most appropriate forum to discuss the damage caused by military operations to the environment. The study indicated that the COP28 conference represents an opportunity to discuss the relevant emissions resulting from military operations.

The study stressed the need to develop common standards for accountability and reporting of military emissions, or at least to limit them. These standards should also be transparent, time-bound and measurable, requiring militaries to improve their capacity to account for emissions, manage them and train their personnel on these environmental aspects.

The study stressed that there is a positive relationship between military spending and climate change. It explained that the higher the military spending levels, the more severe the damage resulting from relevant climate change.

The study showed that the Arctic region will witness many conflicts between the great powers as a result of the impact of climate change on the geographical environment of that region. This fight shall not only be over the control of the abundant natural resources in that region, but also for the imposition of control over new trade routes that may arise in this vast area of the globe.

The Study explained that it may difficult, if not impossible, to hold armies around the world legally and morally accountable for their damaging practices against nature, the environment and global warming. The authors stressed the importance of documenting the impact of armed conflicts on climate change and the need to understand the level of this impact, in order to reduce or at least address the challenges, as soon as possible.