TRENDS and the Institute for Economics and Peace Launch the Ecological Threat Report 2023

Trends Research and Advisory hosted the launching event of the Ecological Threat Report 2023. The ERT is issued by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) and this is the first launch of the report in the Middle East region. The report warned of the worsening environmental threats in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA), which increases the risk of conflict and instability.

The report was released during a panel discussion organized by Trends Research and Advisory in cooperation with the IEP, with the participation of officials, researchers, and experts. The event was opened by Sumaya Al Hadhrami, Deputy Director of TRENDS Global Sector and Chairman of the Center’s COP28 Committee. She expressed appreciation for the Institute’s confidence in Trends capabilities and for choosing the Center to launch this year’s Ecological Report. Ms. Sumaya indicated that the launch of the report comes as the COP28, which shall be hosted by the UAE, approaches. This launch shall support the ongoing global dialogue on the importance of preserving the environment.

Sultan Al-Ali, Director of the Global Barometer Department at TRENDS Research and Advisory, moderated the session which began with keynote remarks by Ms. Hiba Al Shehhi, Director of the Biodiversity Department at the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment, who said that the launch of the report coincides with the UAE’s hosting of the Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP28). It confirms the region's commitment to issues of sustainability and combating climate change.

She referred to the environmental risks facing the region, stressing that they are not just environmental challenges, but rather security, economic and social threats.

Ms. Hiba Al Shehhi indicated that the United Arab Emirates is leading country the region’s efforts towards achieving sustainability. In fact, the UAE has endorsed many strategies to protect the environment. Ms. Hiba explained that these efforts are meant to mitigate environmental risks and ensure a sustainable future for the region.

She called for intensifying efforts to confront ecological threats, through sound policies, popular movements, technological innovations, regional cooperation, and youth education.

Serge Stroobants, Director of Europe and the MENA region at the Institute for Economics and Peace, briefed the audience on the report and expressed his pleasure at the Institute's cooperation with TRENDS Research and Advisory in launching the Environmental Threats Report 2023. He indicated that this cooperation represents a significant step in expanding the scope of the report to reach a larger audience in the Arab region. 

He said that COP28 conference is approaching and  this report is an appropriate warning, adding that environmental threats are increasing and have systemic causes that warrant sustainable solutions.

Mr. Serge added that the report highlights the increasing impact of ecological threats on conflict and displacement in the region. He stressed that this report help us understand the environmental challenges facing the Arab region. He expressed his hope that this report will help governments and societies take action to protect the environment and build resilience to face emerging ecological threats.

The report focused on four main threat areas to the region: food insecurity, water risks, natural disasters, and demographic pressures.  

Mr. Serge said that the report entitled "Ecological Threats 2023", explained that these threats are becoming more pronounced and affect more people than ever before. It indicated that by 2050, 2.8 billion people in the region will reside in areas facing severe ecological threats, compared to 1.8 billion in 2023.

The report indicated that ecological degradation is worsening globally, causing serious social challenges, including food insecurity, water risks, natural disasters and demographic pressure, pose a growing threat to peace and security around the world, the report said. Food insecurity is a major challenge in the region, where nearly 200 million people suffer from hunger. This number is expected to increase in the coming years, as the region is vulnerable to climate change and conflict.

 The report also found that ecological threats increase the risk of conflict, with a 25% increase in food insecurity increasing the risk of conflict by 36%. The report explained that without concerted international action, current levels of environmental degradation are expected to rise significantly, exacerbating a range of social problems, such as malnutrition and internal displacement of people.

The report indicated that water risks is also a major threat in the region, with nearly 200 million people in the region do not have access to safe drinking water, and this figure is expected to increase with climate change.

The report found that 44 countries in the region have a high risk of natural disasters and poor resilience. The impact of extreme weather events is compounded when countries have low levels of resilience.

The region is also facing rapid population growth which places increasing strain on resources and societal resilience. The region's population is expected to reach 5.5 billion by 2050, compared to 3.5 billion in 2023. The report indicated that demographic pressures could lead to increased competition for resources and exacerbate the risk of conflict.

The report stresses that ecological threats, will not be resolved without concerted international action. It recommended greater investments in sustainable development, strengthening regional cooperation to address natural disasters and improving resilience to face environmental threats.

“The most negative effects of Ecological threats can be avoided by timely action and investment to build resilience and avoid conflict and instability in the region”, the report said. 

Stephen Scalet, Economist at TRENDS, also spoke at the session. He said that the Ecological Threat Report identifies the regions, countries, and communities which are most at risk from ecological threats. This is particularly relevant to finding solutions to a global problem such as climate change, because the multilateral framework by its nature demands a global analysis.

He indicated that the report focuses on climate adaptation and resilience. This is very positive, because those two areas generally don’t receive as much funding and policy support as they perhaps should.