President Vladimir Putin's
promise to restore order in Russia following the Wagner mercenaries mutiny has
been fulfilled. In just a few months, Yevgeny Prigozhin had been sidelined. The
Kremlin regained control of the private security market to ensure that previous
experiences – "clumsy", in Putin's words[1] – will not be
repeated. The official line is now well-established. It claims that the issue
of private military companies (PMCs) has never existed in Russia because these
activities have never been legally regulated. And it implies that transparency
is back and that Russian diplomacy's foreign operations on the African
continent and in the Arab world are unconcealed. Since the 2010s, Russian private military companies have worked with
regimes that came to power through armed insurrection (Central Republic of
Africa, Niger, Mali) and have intervened in the Middle East, particularly in
Syria.
Mercenaryism has been
an unresolved issue in Russia for almost a decade. The option of following the
American model was rejected: it would not have been in keeping with Moscow's
tradition to expose state security to the laws of the free market. Since the
time of the Tsars, it has been accepted that any question of national security
should be dealt with at the highest level in the Kremlin and nowhere else.
When the Wagner
company was established in 2014, the authorities did not interfere because of
the relationship of trust that existed between President Putin and Prigozhin.
The approach may have been illegal, but it had the merit of being realistic.
The Russian army needs men. The days of Soviet-era overstaffing are over, and
the security apparatus needs to be strengthened with manpower. The country also
needs courage. Wagner has shown that far from bureaucratic red tape, a simple
company of mercenaries can accompany Russian diplomacy in the Middle East and
Africa, helping to increase its strategic depth.
President Putin
followed the Wagnerian dynamic by signing a decree [N°370-17.07.15] authorizing
the creation of a mobilization reserve for his armed forces a year later. The
BARS (Special Army Combat Reserve)[2] are nothing more
than the reserve units that exist throughout the world. This would have been
the end of the story, were it not for the fact that there is a grey area in
this project, at least one that is specific to Russia. The BARS are not just
battalions. Some have the financial backing of major Russian companies.
Transneft, a wealthy oil pipeline construction and management company,[3] is the financial
backer of the BARS-20 battalion, commanded by Sergei Dedov. Employees of the
company, particularly security guards, were offered the chance to join the
battalion as "volunteers" rather than "mercenaries" in
return for a pay rise. Some were sent to fight in Ukraine. The exact number of
deaths is unknown, but memorial videos are available on social networks.[4]
The confusion was compounded when it emerged that the list
of reserve units included private military companies (PMCs) such as Olkhone and
Troie, which are legally banned but still listed for military intervention if
necessary. A plan to legalize security companies was mooted in 2018 to address
this discrepancy but was quickly rejected. Although the Kremlin made no
official statement, it can be assumed that it wanted to retain control over
these unregulated and highly lucrative activities – the Russian security market
is worth billions of dollars[5] – while taking advantage of the operational ease of
ambiguity. Legalization would have led to restrictions that would have hindered
the operational flexibility needed in "grey" operations.
Russia officially has
27 private military companies.[6] After the
disappearance of Wagner's boss in a plane crash in June 2023, Moscow decided
that all players in the security market, without exception or privilege, must
register with the Ministry of Defense. As of 1 July, they must keep detailed
records of their activities, as well as an inventory of their personnel and
equipment.[7] Mercenaryism remains
formally banned, unless the "volunteers" are part of a Russian army
operation (Ukraine, Syria) or the men operate in close coordination with
Kremlin’s diplomacy. In the event of a breach, security companies are liable to
a fine and risk being dissolved.
To
show the public that nothing will be the same after the Wagner affair, Moscow
launched a communications operation with the Chechen militia Akhmat, which has
gone to the Defense Ministry to declare its activities. The Kremlin wants to
send the message of a return to normality. Official semantics now speak of
"volunteer units" rather than "mercenaries."[8] It
trivializes the phenomenon by providing aid and support to
"volunteers" deployed in foreign theaters. The Defenders of the
Fatherland Foundation, headed by Anna Tsivileva and apparently set up under the
aegis of the Russian Ministry of Defense, provides administrative and human
support to soldiers returning from the front. Their injuries are considered and
they are now receiving appropriate follow-up care. The Russian PMCs still
exist, but they have fallen into line.
State of Play
The new map of
Russian military companies is organized around an entity called
Redut-Antiterror, also known as "R Centre" or "Redut." Its
name is no coincidence. It refers to the Patriotic War of 1812, when the
Russians halted the advance of Napoleon's armies using fortifications known as “redoubts.”
These redoubts contributed to the defense of Moscow.
At the outset, Redut
was to be a security company like any other, no more and no less than a
competitor to Wagner, which dominated the security market at the time. Redut
was founded by billionaire Gennady Timchenko in 2006 or 2008, depending on the
source,[9] a time when the fate
of mercenary companies was being played out in Moscow's chic restaurants, at
the tables of retired military officers, businessmen with links to the
oligarchs and influential personalities who were able to obtain tacit approval
from the Kremlin to carry out such activities.
At first sight, Redut is
nothing special. It's a simple
PMC (private military companies). Its first employees were former soldiers
from the 106th Airborne Division, the 56th Airborne
Battalion, the 2nd Special Forces Brigade of the GRU (military
intelligence) and the 173rd Special Forces. These are classic,
experienced profiles often used to screen recruits. Redut recruits Russian
citizens aged between 21 and 50, and the jobs on offer are varied:
reconnaissance officers, Vasilek mortar gunners, snipers, medical instructors,
logisticians, drivers, etc. Salaries vary between $1,300 and $1,900 per month
when the mercenary works in Russia and can reach $5,000 in foreign operations.[10] Although this is
slightly higher than what Wagner charges, it can be considered normal for this
type of work.
Redut is based in
Kubinka, near Moscow, next to the 45th Brigade of the Russian Armed
Forces. This is where the mercenaries train.
Figure 1: Mercenary trainee personal photos
Source: Redut Telegram channel
But
on closer examination, Redut is not a PMC like the others. It defines itself as
a "military-professional union." This may seem like an odd name, as
it brings together two antinomic words, "military" and "union."
But that's exactly what it is.
At the very beginning,
when Redut was founded, the idea was to create a collaborative organization
that would unite Russia's PMCs in the same way that a trade union is a point of
convergence for different companies. It was understood that each PMC would
retain its autonomy, staff, hierarchy, and funding. By joining Redut, they
agreed to work together on an ad hoc basis, pooling their human and material
resources to carry out specific tasks. When the mission is over, everyone goes
back to their own barracks.
In the 2010s, this idea
met with mixed success. At the time, Wagner dominated the security market
thanks to generous subsidies. Prigozhin was in such a position of superiority that he didn't see the point of
such an initiative. The fall of the Wagner empire brought the concept back into
the limelight. The Kremlin has seen fit to promote the organizational model. It
has three advantages: a) PMCs become allies in winning contracts rather than
competitors; b) the risk of one company establishing a dominant position is
virtually eliminated; c) the authorities simplify their chain of command.
Should the Kremlin issue a request, for example, to recruit X new volunteers
for the operation in Ukraine, it asks Redut, and they will come from the
various Russian PMCs that have applied for the operation.
A team of investigative
journalists has uncovered this highly unusual organization, reminiscent of the
"operations rooms" of armed groups in the Middle East. At the heart
of the organization is Redut. Around Redut, the PMCs come and go. [11] They are classified by geographical origin, name, or company affiliation.
This is a hodgepodge of disparate groups such as the Siberian Brigade, groups
from the Don (Aksai Battalion), formations from the Union of Donbass
Volunteers, Gazprom PMCs, and other small, virtually unknown groups such as the
Borz Squad or the Imperial Legion.
In the Field
When a mercenary leaves
his original PMC to join Redut, the "Military-Professional Union," he
joins new units, which have common names: Ilimovtsy, Hooligans, Wolves,
Marines, Axes.[12] The system is
deliberately flexible and malleable, and therefore very opaque. It's hard to
know who is who, who is fighting for what, who is operating under what
identity. The administrative procedures are not clear either. Sometimes a
mercenary who signs up to fight in Redut signs a contract on a sheet of paper
bearing the abbreviation "RLSPI," the initials of the Laboratoire
Régional de Recherches Sociales et Psychologiques. According to the
investigative website Idel.Realities, the name is a cover for the secret
activities of Unit 35555, which is linked to Russian military intelligence.[13]
This labyrinth of truth
and untruth, approximation, and mystery are parts of the Redut system. Some of
the PMCs involved in the system are easily identifiable. This is the case of
the Russian fossil fuel giant Gazprom, a strategic company that, in February
2023, created a private military company called Gazprom PMC, officially to
protect its industrial infrastructure in Russia and abroad.[14] The details of the
financial package are interesting. The main shareholders are PJSC Gazprom Neft
(70% of the capital) and the private security company STAF-CENTER (30%), a
company co-founded by former KGB officers Andrey Kuratov, Andrey Timofeev, and Andrey
Gavrilov.
Other PMCs are little
known because they have only recently been created, such as the "Russian
Volunteer Corps," which was created in Mariupol in February 2023.[15] This unit brings
together fighters who support Russia's attack on Ukraine. There is also Convoy,
founded in Crimea by Sergei Aksenov, which also fights to defend Russian
interests.
In
the past, the life of a mercenary was a jealously guarded secret. Today, thanks
to social networks, it is possible to find out about the daily life of these
men, who belong to the most modest and certainly the most confidential of all
private military companies. The Convoy Telegram channel describes the daily
life of these men on the front line in Ukraine. Here are a few examples:
13.10.2022
A mercenary shoots a video presenting
his kit bag. VIDEO.
14.10.2023
"Our fighters inflicted fire damage
on the personnel and equipment of the 126th Armed Forces Defense
Brigade in the Berislav region."
22.10.2023
An anonymous mercenary's birthday is
celebrated with a photo.
25.10.2023
"Our
fighters also struck exposed concentrations of enemy personnel in the areas of
Aleshkinsky Island and the small railway bridge over the Dnieper. Enemy drones
were shot down by Russian air defenses in the Peschanovka area. Over the past
24 hours, more than 110 shells have been fired by Ukrainian forces along the
left bank of the Kherson region."
To
get a better idea of the profile of this type of mercenary, to
"humanize" the fate of those men who decide one day to take up arms, it
is worth taking a look at the case of "Shaman," alias David Honda,
born in Khakassia, one of many mercenaries. His story reflects this new
generation of Russian mercenaries.[16]
When
he applied to join Redut, he lied. David Honda claimed to have graduated from
the Krasnoyarsk branch of the Higher Police School in 2004, but there was no such
school that year. He explained that his non-Russian-sounding surname was given
to him by the French Foreign Legion, where he claimed to have served. There is
no indication that this information has been verified.
Honda
went to fight in Syria. He was sent to the outpost of the 23944 military unit
in Khmeimim. This base is the nerve center of the Russian operation, commanded
at the time by Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlev. In 2019, the end of the
Islamic State group's territorialization was accompanied by a reorganization of
its spheres of influence, and there was much fighting. David Honda was killed in unknown
circumstances on 15 June 2019, aged 42. A few weeks later, his body was
returned to his family in a zinc coffin, accompanied by a certificate stating,
"cerebral hemorrhage due to a fragmentation explosion." The document
was signed by Syrian forensic doctors, Brigadier General Ghassan Ali Darwish
and Brigadier General Shafik Abas, head of the Zaghi Azraq rehabilitation
hospital.
A Mysterious
Commander
While
it is very clear that Redut operates under the authority of the Russian
presidency and the Ministry of Defense, there are still doubts about the
company's direction.
Since
August 2023, Russian sources have claimed that Andrey Troshev, a retired
colonel and former executive director of Wagner PMC, has joined Redut's
management team.[17] This
choice, which has not been denied by Moscow, seems credible. The officer is no
stranger. A veteran of the wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya, Troshev is a
graduate of the military artillery school in Leningrad. He left the army in
2012 to join Prigozhin's team. He was decorated with the “Hero of
Russia,” the country's highest award.
If confirmed, the
appointment would be a shrewd move. It would weaken the current management of
Wagner, who no longer has the scent of Putin's sanctity about it, and would
strengthen the management skills of Redut, who is now the Kremlin's point man
on "volunteer" or "mercenary" issues, depending on your
point of view. What is certain is that Vladimir Putin and Andrey Troshev know
each other, as newsreels and photographs taken in the Kremlin during an
official ceremony confirm.
Figure 2: Wagner’s commanders. Troshev is directly to Putin’s right. Other are Dmitry Utkin, Andrei Bogatov and Alexander Kuzbetsov.
Source: John Hardie X/Twitter, Courtesy Image
(2016)
Wagner's setbacks did not interrupt the meetings. On
29 September 2023, Troshev was officially hosted at the presidential palace.
Putin gave him a mission: "You will be responsible for training volunteer
battalions capable of carrying out various combat missions, especially in the
area of the 'special military operation' [in Ukraine]."
According to Dmitri Polyansky, Russia's permanent
representative to the UN, Redut receives no state support.[18] The statement is very clear about there being no
direct or indirect link. However, several sources indicate the opposite. In
July 2022, a recruiter with the call sign "Kibarda" working at the
Trigulyai (Tambov) training center stated that "Redut is a company of the
Main Intelligence Directorate."[19] The usually well-informed Russian researcher Anton
Mardasov has obtained information that tends to confirm the existence of
organic links between Russian military intelligence and Redut. An investigative
article by the Warbook journalism platform agrees. It argues that Redut is
"fully controlled by the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the
Russian Armed Forces."[20]
There is every reason
to believe that the Kremlin has reorganized the private military sector based
on cold analysis: Wagner was not all doom and gloom. The break came not from
mercenary activities but from a leadership position that the iconoclast Prigozhin
was intoxicated by. Like any intelligence officer, President Putin had his
"return from experience." Ultimately, the Wagner case had the merit
of being a caricature that showed the Kremlin what it had to give up and what
it had to keep being in a position to make the best possible contribution to
Russian influence.
The man responsible for transferring the
contracts between Wagner and Redut is the Deputy Defense Minister, Yunusbek
Yevkurov.[21] This summer he travelled to Libya and
sub-Saharan Africa (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso) to persuade the regimes to
cancel their original security contracts and turn to Redut. The aim is to
achieve a gradual and smooth transition. The regimes visited are fragile,
either in a situation of latent civil war or victims of recurrent armed
uprisings. Russian diplomacy must be tactful; otherwise, China's PMCs, which
are as discreet as they are ambitious, will take advantage of Russia's retreat
to gain new market share.
Above all, Moscow does not want to give up Wagner's
business network in Africa, where security has become more lucrative as the UN
and Western forces have reduced their military footprint. When the Wagner empire was at its height,
it had 5,000 men in Africa. Business was booming. Estimates put revenues from
its mining empire at US$250 million between 2018 and 2020.[22] The company has developed a sprawling presence in
every lucrative sector of the economy. In addition to mining and security,
Wagner has used its address book to open unexpected markets. In 2021, for
example, a company linked to Prigozhin's interests was awarded a
lucrative logging concession in the Central African Republic (CAR). The
company, Bois Rouge, was granted the right to exploit 186,000 hectares of
forest that is home to protected species.[23] Since then, Central African timber exports to the EU
have increased by 62 percent, to 11 million euro.[24]
The most important country for Russia in the Middle
East is Syria, where Wagner's men have long been present. According to Russian
sources, Moscow offered Bashar al-Assad's regime to write off its debt to
Wagner if it agreed to trust Redut and use its security services. In the
absence of an authentic source, it is impossible for now to know whether
Damascus responded positively or negatively. But Redut has real arguments for
making its voice heard in Damascus and winning back contracts. It knows the
Syrian theater, where it was identified in 2019. Its mercenaries have secured
the Stroytransgaz gas installations.[25] Since the regime owes its survival to the Russian
intervention in 2015, it would have no interest in persisting in working with a
now disgraced PMC.
Figure 3: Advertising
poster showing a soldier of the BARS project of the Ministry of Defense of the
Russian Federation
Source: https://storage.googleapis.com/istories/stories/2023/11/03/na-voinu-iz-transnefti/index.html.
The pressure is on the shoulders of Wagner's new
directors as they try to preserve all or part of the company's heritage.
Yevgeny Prigozhin's son Pavel is working with security chief Mikhail Vatanin to
keep the group going, but it's not easy. There is a real possibility that the
group will disintegrate. In addition to the loss of valuable officers such as
Andrey Troshev, who was recruited by Redut to lead the group, mercenaries are
leaving the PMC. Men from the 1st Assault Battalion have reportedly
already signed so-called resubordinating contracts to join the Federal
Service of National Guards of the Russian Federation (Rosgvardiya).[26] The problem of the viability of Wagner's mercenary
activities may eventually be resolved. His overall business volume has already
taken a hit. In 2022, his revenues fell from US$25 million to US$6.7 million.[27]
Although its laws prohibit mercenaryism, Moscow hopes
that the Redut "volunteers" will eventually establish themselves as
trusted interlocutors of the Kremlin, without fear of mutiny, including in
African and Arab countries where Russia has influence. The idea is to
trivialize the phenomenon of auxiliary forces, mercenaries or not, so that they
become part of the norm. The Russian press has finally gotten used to this new
focus. The very official – and once feared – Pravda reports on it daily. The
information is presented not as scoops but as banal events: "Russian
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's private military company (PMC) Patriot, in
competition with Yevgeny Prigozhin's PMC Wagner, has been spotted near Vuhledar
in the Donetsk region."[28] For its part, the tabloid press is supporting the
movement by announcing the creation of the Borz battalion by Redut, for
example. Its only distinguishing feature is that it recruits women for combat
roles such as snipers, drone operators and so on.[29]
Conclusion
The reorganization of the security sector seems to have been inspired by an old Russian proverb: "In a united herd, there is no need to fear the wolf." Vladimir Putin has closed the ranks of the PMCs to maintain full use of the famous "grey zone" that states are so fond of using for parallel diplomacy. Thus, when the Deputy Defense Minister, Yunusbek Yevkurov, visited Libya this summer, he added to the Redut dossier the fate of the ports of Benghazi and Tobruk, where the Russian navy intends to make technical stops with the aim to prevent the Turks from taking eastern Libya's maritime infrastructure. The idea is to play down the "shadow soldiers" issue, to strip it of its fictional substance, to give it a simple transactional value, so that Redut is no more and no less than an additional package line that Moscow is offering its partner countries.
[1] “Putin said
that there are no PMCs in Russia,” RIA (ru.), October 5, 2023.
[2] "Why is
former Wagner PMC chief of staff Troshev known and why did Putin meet him?” Crimea.Realii
(Ukr), September 30, 2023, https://rb.gy/lxgdy7
[3] “How Transneft
fought the 'European evil,”' Storage Googleapis (Ru), November 3, 2023, https://rb.gy/gidk8r
[4] Video on the Russian social network VK, https://rb.gy/0cebqc
[5] “Russian
security services market: results 2022, forecast to 2026,” Neo Analytics -
Smart (Ru), July 19, 2023, https://rb.gy/knlnlw
[6] “Catalog of
Russian PMCs: 37 private military companies of the Russian Federation,” Molfar,
2023, https://rb.gy/cfo2hx
[7] “Russian
Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov held a conference call on the issues of
contract military staffing of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation,”
Russian Ministry of Defense, (Ru), October 6, 2023, https://cutt.ly/EwYV99sc
[8] “Private
military companies required to sign contracts with the defense ministry,” Asia
Plus, June 12, 2023, https://cutt.ly/swYV5pR9
[9] Svetlana Kazimirova, “Which company will replace the
Wagnerians in the Northern Military Region: what is Redut PMC, what does it do,
when did it appear and who runs it?,” Vesiskitim (Ru), September 5, 2023, https://cutt.ly/uwYBoVEM
[10] “'La Redoute' to replace 'Wagner': what do we know about this PMC and its leader?,” The Ftimes (Ru), September 5, 2023, https://n9.cl/7xwyp
[11] The group is made up of journalists from the Czech
investigative newspaper Current Time, Shemes and Sistema - the investigative
service of Present Time and Radio Liberty.
[12] “How sending
PMC Wagner to the front helped Prigozhin improve relations with Putin - and
what the 'Sobyanin regiment' is. Meduza's investigation into the mercenaries of
the war in Ukraine,” Meduza (Ru), July 13, 2022, https://bit.ly/4aHELf2.
[13] “Who's Who Among Russia's
Mercenary Companies,” RFE/RL's Idel.Realities, May 23, 2023.
[14] “Russian Gazprom
creates its own PMC - intelligence,” Pravda (Ru), February 7, 2023,
https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/02/7/696804/.
[15] The Telegram War Gonzo feed announced the
creation of this PMC, https://t.me/wargonzo.
[16] “Without “Shield”
- Service and death in another private military company, which does not
officially exist in Russia,” Novaya Gazeta (Ru), July 29, 2019, https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2019/07/28/81406-bez-schita.
[17] “’La Redoute' to replace 'Wagner': what do we know
about this PMC and its leader?,” The Ftimes (Ru), September 5, 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqaDZUdAN4c.
[18] Svetlana
Kazimirova, “Which company will replace the Wagnerians in the Northern Military
Region: what is Redut PMC, what does it do, when did it appear and who runs
it?,” Vesiskitim (Ru), September 5, 2023, https://iz.ru/1627123/roman-kretcul-bogdan-stepovoi/okruzhnoi-dorogoi-kak-reformiruiusia-rossiiskie-vooruzhennye-sily.
[19]
Announcement made on the Russian social network VK.
[20] “How to
get into PMC Redut?,” The War Book (Ru), 2023, https://www.currenttime.tv/a/redut-zk-systema/32632359.html.
[21] “Haftar
discusses situation in Libya with Russian defence command. Discussions focused
on the future of 'Wagner',” CNN (Ar) September 27, 2023, https://arabic.cnn.com/middle-east/article/2023/08/25/ussian-military-delegation-libya-speculation-wagners-future-role-in-africa.
[22] Nosmot
Gbadamosi, “Will Wagner Stay in Africa?,” Foreign Policy, June 28, 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/28/will-wagner-stay-in-africa/.
[23] “Prigozhin
structures received 200,000 hectares of forest in Africa,” Activatica (Ru),
July 22, 2022, https://activatica.org/content/f46c4b7c-f620-4290-a0ce-aa09b136410f/struktury-prigozhina-poluchili-200-ga-lesa-v-afrike?tab=actions.
[24] “European
Union, Trade in goods with Central African Republic,” European Commission,
2022.
[25] Maxime
Anfalov, “How locksmiths and security guards earn half a million a month in
Syria,” Agence d'information et d'analyse" URA.RU (RU), 3 août 2019, https://ura.news/articles/1036278560.
[26] “Russian
National Guard employs former Wagner PMC prisoners,” Radio Ozodi (Taj.),
September 12, 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC-8-xDtKoU.
[27] “Wagner
fractures in Syria, Libya amid conflict with Russia's Defense Ministry,” Al
Monitor, October 1, 2023, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/09/wagner-fractures-syria-libya-amid-conflict-russias-defense-ministry.
[28] Tetiana
Lozovenko, “Shoigu deploys his Private Military Company, which competes with
Wagner Group, to war against Ukraine,” Pravda, December 28, 2022, https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/12/28/7382706/.
[29] Anastasia
Korotkova, "Created for much more than soups and children." Russian
women began to be recruited into combat specialities to take part in the war,”
Storage Googleapis, October 23, 2023, https://storage.googleapis.com/istories/news/2023/10/23/sozdani-ne-tolko-dlya-supov-i-detei-rossiiskii-zhenshchin-nachali-verbovat-na-boevie-spetsialnosti-dlya-uchastiya-v-voine-viyasnili-vazhnie-istorii/index.html.
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